I was at class today so I didn’t get to watch/score the game so here is the wrap from Stros.com:

Bourn 1-3, 2 BB, 2B, 2 R
Tejada 2-4, BB, R
Berkman 1-4, BB, K, 3 RBI, R, 3-run HR
Lee 1-4, RBI
Pence 1-4, BB, RBI, HR, K
Blum 1-5
Rodriguez 1-4, BB, K
Keppinger 1-2, R, BB, 3B
Ortiz 1-2, RBI

Pitching lines:
Ortiz 4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO
Wright .1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER (got the W)
Sampson 1.2 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER
Byrdak 1.1 IP, 1 H, 2 K, 0 ER
LeHawk 1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, (save)

Good news: Berkman and Pence both went yard for the 2nd and 3rd home runs respectively. Keppinger and Tejada stayed hot and our bullpen didn’t give up any runs. Russ Ortiz also hung in there and kept Houston in the game.

Bad news: Ortiz didn’t quite go 5 innings. Houston left 10 on base.

Wright (1-0)
LeHawk (Save)

Tomorrow has Roy Oswalt taking on his favorite team the Cincinnati Reds for the start of a 10 game home stand for Houston.

Brian Moehler was pulled after 1 2/3 innings and 7 earned runs.  Moehler didn’t get any breaks as the Cubs had at least 3 broken bat singles in the first.  Those days will happen.  Russ Ortiz came in and immediately gave up a 3 run shot to Ryan Theriot.  Although the line wont show it, Russ pitched well with 6 k’s in his first outing since 2007.

The story for tonight, other than Chicago scoring 4 runs in both the 1st and 2nd inning, was the bats for Houston.  Jeff Keppinger (J-Kepp!), Lance Berkman, Kazuo Matsui, and Hunter Pence all hit solo shots with Pudge Rodriguez hitting a 2 run shot as well to account for 5 home runs and all Houston runs tonight. 

Matsui 1-5, HR, RBI, R
Keppinger 2-5, HR, RBI, R
Berkman 1-4, HR, RBI, R, K
Lee 1-4, 2B (first hit for Lee)
Tejada 1-4, R
Pence 2-4, HR, 2B, R, RBI
Pudge 2-4, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, R
Bourn 1-4, K

Good News: Houston’s offense was looking better with the 5 home runs.  Russ Ortiz pitched well though he gave up 3 runs.  Carlos Lee got his first hit and Bourn continues to hit.  J-Kepp is proving to be a great pick up and seems as though he can do no wrong. Hunter Pence 2 homers in 2 games and is swinging the bat well. Michael Bourn will head to St. Louis with a 3 game hitting streak.

Bad News: Obvious here, Moehler only pitched 1 2/3 inning.  He didn’t pitch poorly but the Cubs were putting the ball and play and getting hits. It will be interesting to see how Moehler bounces back.

Pitching Lines:
Brian Moehler 1 2/3 IP, 8 hits, BB, K, HBP, 7 earned.
Russ Ortiz 3 IP, 4 hits, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 3 earned.
Chris Sampson 1 1/3 IP, 1 hit, 0 earned
Geoff Geary 1 IP, 1 hit, 1 K, 0 earned
Wesley Wright 1 IP, 1 hit, 1 K, 0 earned
Doug Brocail 1 IP, 1 hit, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 earned.

Ted Lilly gives up 4 bombs and gets the win. (1-0)
Brian Moehler takes the loss. (0-1)

Houston is off tomorrow but will travel to St. Louis to take on the Cardinals Friday with Mike Hampton facing Joel Pineiro.

Cubs 4
Astros 2

Carlos Zambrano pitched just over 6 innings giving up only earned run and striking out 6.  Roy Oswalt went 7 innings and gave up 3 earned runs including a leadoff home run by Alfonso Soriano, his 50th lead off dinger, and another home run by Aramis Ramirez to lead off the 2nd inning.

Houston struggled at the plate logging 8 hits but none for extra bases.  Michael Bourn hit an infield single in 7th to score Miguel Tejada.  Hunter Pence hit a sac fly in the 9th that also scored Tejada, who scored both of the Astros runs.

Matsui 1-3, BB
Rodriguez 0-4, 2K
Berkman 1-2, 2BB
Lee 0-4, GIDP
Tejada 3-4, K, CS, 2 R
Blum 1-3, BB
Pence 0-3, RBI, GIDP, K
Bourn 2-4, K

Good news: Roy pitched pretty well and hopefully will probably settle down on the home run tip.  I doubt Roy is ever going to pitch a no-hitter in his career because he is such a strikeout/pitch to contact type power pitcher. Also, Bourn was 2-4.

Bad news: Pence, Lee, and Rodriguez did not look real good at the plate. I was surprised by how free swinging Pudge is.

Pitching Lines:
Roy Oswalt 7IP, 3 ER, 2 SO, 1BB (0-1)
Geoff Geary 2 IP, 1 ER, 2 SO, 1 BB

Houston takes on the Cubs again tomorrow at 7:05 with Wandy Rodriguez taking on Ryan Dempster.

Houston 0-1

This is easily the best prediction for the NL Central I have encountered so far.  Here is what he has for Houston and where each team will finish:

“Houston Astros

• Position player WAR: 20.5
• Starters WAR: 7.3
• Closer WAR: 0.8
• Total WAR: 28.6

Lance Berkman carries the big bat for the Astros. Photo: Icon SMI

The Astros tie up a good chunk of their core value wins in two players, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. Together they combine for 10.6 of the 28.6 value wins from 2008. Berkman is more than twice as good as the next nearest position player, beating Carlos Lee 6.9 to 3.4 in value wins. Oswalt isn’t quite that far ahead of Wandy Rodriguez, 3.7 to 2.7, but Wandy hasn’t been consistent through this career. If anything major happens to Lance or Roy, the Astros are in big trouble.

There is some upside in two of the younger hitters, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Both posted very strong on-base averages in the minors, which neither of them have come close to in the majors. Pence adds power to that equation. If the two can get on base at around a .360 rate, they should bring this offense a bit closer to the Cubs. I just don’t believe there’s enough at the back of the rotation, however, to catch Chicago.”

Pretty much nails it.  Hopefully this Berkman shoulder injury is a short term deal and Roy can stay healthy.  I have a feeling Bourn is going to get on base more this season and Hunter Pence is going to be more productive offensively so maybe, just maybe, Houston can compete with Chi-town.  I’m banking on the Wild Card if anything though.

Baseball Musings’ Predictions for the end of the year:

“Prediction

Here’s how I see the six teams finishing, with my chance of their winning the division:

1. Cubs, 55%
2. Cardinals, 15%
3. Astros, 12%
4. Brewers, 10%
5. Reds, 7%
6. Pirates, 1%

The Cubs should win this division easily provided they stay healthy. Even with a couple of injuries they have enough depth to put together a very good season. The Cardinals should challenge for the wild card, but for the Astros, Brewers and Reds, they need unexpected players to post career years or some youngsters to really improve. It seems to me the excitement in the central this season will once again come from the wild card race rather than a close battle with the Chicago.”

I agree with his slotting the Astros 3rd.  I think that it is definately going to be between them and St. Louis for the 2nd spot in the division and the possible wild card in the NL.

You can read the rest of David’s post here.

Bad day on the mound today for the Stros. From astros.com:

Stros at the plate: “Kazuo Matsui went 3-for-3 with a double, run scored and RBI and Hunter Pence went 1-for-3 with a double and RBI. Edwin Maysonet hit a solo home run to left field off right-hander Chad Durbin in the sixth inning.”

That’s two 3-3 days for Kaz in the past 3 games.  Maysonet showing some pop while vying for that back up infield position, making the decision even tougher for Coop. 

Stros on the bump: “Left-hander Mike Hampton allowed seven hits, seven runs, three walks and three home runs in five innings. He struck out three” From Brian McTaggart of the Houston Chronicle: “The Phillies hit four homers off the Astros, with Wesley Wright giving up four runs, a homer and two walks in one inning to raise his ERA to 3.60. Chris Sampson pitched two innings, allowing three hits and two unearned runs. ”

Tough day on the mound for Hampton and Houston but, those days are gonna happen, just ask Mike Hampton:

“”I’ll have one during the season, too, probably more than just one,” he said. “That’s just part of it. You try to minimize the damage as much as you can, but I made some good pitches at times and there were some times I left the ball over the plate and got hit.” ”

In Hampy’s defense, Coop says he got squeezed a little.

Houston’s Grapefruit League record: Astros 9-18-3

Houston got the bats out today and defeated the Phillies 6-5.

From the all-mighty astros.mlb.com:

Stros at the plate: “Miguel Tejada logged three hits, including a solo homer in the fourth and an RBI double in the sixth. Geoff Blum’s RBI single off Ryan Madson in the sixth broke a 3-3 tie, and his double in the eighth gave Houston a three-run lead. Lance Berkman doubled in the sixth and scored on Tejada’s double. Hunter Pence logged three singles, marking back-to-back three-hit games.”

Tejada is playing like a free man.  Kazuo Matsui also had three knocks today.

Stros on the bump: “In his first outing since returning from the World Baseball Classic, Oswalt allowed 10 hits and three runs over six innings. He did not issue a walk and struck out six. LaTroy Hawkins (LaHawk!)pitched a scoreless seventh. ”

Roy said his main goal for todays outing was to throw around 100 pitches and he threw 96.  Roy should get one more start before opening day which is RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER!!

Astros’ Grapefruit League Record: 8-16-3.  2 more wins for double digits baby.

Hunter Pence of the Houston Astros and Nate McLouth of the Pittsburgh Pirates are both up and comers in the NL Central.  Each player, though young, is an important piece for their respective teams. 

It is easy to draw comparisons between the two youngsters but which one will develop more and greater help their team in 2009?

Last year was the first full year in the majors for both players so I am going to use their 2008 stats as well as their 2009 Spring Training numbers to this point when making a comparison.

Total at bats:

Nate McLouth 597

Hunter Pence 595

Spot most often slotted in batting order:

Nate McLouth 1^st

Hunter Pence 6th

One of my Astros V. Pirates memories of last season was watching Houston play the Bucs and McLouth hit a double to pass Lance Berkman for the doubles lead at the point.  I think it was his 33^rd double or so. 

That is a pretty big deal considering Lance Berkman, one of the best hitters in the big leagues, nearly doubled his doubles output last season, hitting 46 doubles, 22 more than the previous season.  Although Berkman’s 2007 xtra base hit numbers were down, that is still pretty good company for Nate.

Btw, Nate finished with as many doubles as Lance. Hunter Pence finished the season with twelve less doubles than McLouth with 34.

Another area where McLouth finished higher than Pence is on base percentage.  OBP is important for any player but especially important for those players hitting higher in the lineup.   

McLouth OBP .356

Pence OBP .318

McLouth also out slugged Pence.

McLouth SLG .497

Pence SLG .466

Almost half of McLouth’s hits were for extra bases.  McLouth’s 2^nd most often spot slotted in the batting order was 3^rd.  I think that was where he was batting for the Buc’s that day when they played Houston.

As far as homers go McLouth hit 26 while Pence hit 25, so I’ll call that one a wash.

McLouth stole 23 bases and was caught stealing 3 times while Hunter Pence stole 11 bases and was caught stealing 10 times!  Looks like McLouth was better around the sacs as well.

As an Astros fan, and a Hunter Pence fan, I got to watch Pence go through some struggles at the plate last year.  By the end of the year it seemed as though he was more comfortable and striking out less. 

Pence has got to let that plate discipline carry over into this season if he is going to be successful and progress as a player.

McLouth dominates Pence in the strike out category with Pence striking out 124 times last season and McLouth 93.  McLouth also walked almost 20 more times than Pence last year, hence the edge in OBP.

How is each player doing in spring so far?

Nate McLouth: In 40 at bats 13 hits, 2 doubles, 3 homers, 8 RBI, 6 BB, 12 SO, and a .413 OBP.

Hunter Pence: In 54 at bats 15 hits, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 2 homers, 2 RBI, 6BB 12 SO, and a .350 OBP.

Both are showing the same strike out to walk ratio but considering Pence has 14 more AB’s, McLouth again seems to be showing better discipline at the plate with more walks in less at bats.  But, McLouth also has as many strike outs in 14 less at bats.  All in all, they are pretty close this spring.

Who will perform better in 2009?  The numbers say Nate McLouth.  As an Astros’ fan and a Hunter Pence fan, I think he has a chance to bust out this season.  Check back with me at the All Star break and again in October.